Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c2cd4329b65dfc2b60f32fda4a7b7a010349a2c24ce08bec55f57cfb8cfdba1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 34c | 811.1$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.17 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 3c | 532.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 518.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 53c | 294.2$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 30c | 277.82$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.57 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 252.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 250$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 40c | 232.91$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.28 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 217$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 212.53$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.88 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 199.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.89 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 197.81$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 187.57$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 60c | 165.78$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 53c | 153$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 28c | 130$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 51c | 114.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 113.73$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 107.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 25c | 105.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 77c | 104.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.87 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 42c | 94.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 93.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 93.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 68c | 83.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 47c | 81.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 79.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 79.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 51c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 66c | 68.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 61.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 43c | 60.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 56.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…602dbacked Yes | 51c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 31c | 52.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 77c | 52.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 52.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 50.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 25c | 50.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 40c | 50.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 47c | 50.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 23c | 48.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b74…6516backed Yes | 78c | 46.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 33c | 46.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 24c | 46.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 59c | 41.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 53c | 39.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 31c | 35.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 35.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 58c | 34.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 73c | 33.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…2f80backed No | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa021…d5c9backed No | 63c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 77c | 32.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391e…7a6cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 58c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 48c | 30.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd3…98efbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 29.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 51c | 28.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 24.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 72c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 77c | 20.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 16.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 75c | 14.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 75c | 14.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 14.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 73c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 78c | 14.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.