Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23812dc26e14f821e1dca159ca067b06a222ad2d2e5491ce542f6c697b9e736f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 398.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 39c | 253.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 40c | 214.13$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 30c | 214$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 79c | 205.83$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 79c | 188.54$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 37c | 175.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 169.22$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 15c | 165.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 149$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 121.17$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9044…dcedbacked Yes | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 67c | 107.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 37c | 105.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 99.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 97.06$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 71c | 97.05$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 96.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 82.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 60c | 81.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 62c | 79.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 41c | 76.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 61c | 73.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 62c | 69.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…1fbfbacked No | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 41c | 61.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 58.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 57.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…602dbacked Yes | 39c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 54.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed Yes | 41c | 51.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 33c | 44.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 30c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 45c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 37.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 35.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa053…efe8backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 59c | 34.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 33.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 24.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 21.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 56c | 20.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 19.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 18.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 63c | 17.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 66c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdef…9015backed No | 67c | 15.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.