Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee90b6d10f413672a116e3462f63916e3b6708e686c78257562c3bc612a061d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 6c | 275.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 219.87$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 31c | 171.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 7c | 147.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 135.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc055…7d0abacked No | 78c | 115.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 111.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 101.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 40c | 99.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 36c | 94.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 26c | 90.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.47 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 37c | 89.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 52c | 83.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 81.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 75.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Yes | 72c | 69.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 64.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe798…5204backed No | 28c | 64.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 56c | 63.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 41c | 60.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 55.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 39c | 49.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 38c | 39.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 61c | 38.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 64c | 37.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 50c | 30.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 56c | 26.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 58c | 24.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 65c | 22.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 50c | 21.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 66c | 21.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 76c | 21.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cc…da77backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 75c | 19.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 75c | 19.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…1f3dbacked No | 80c | 13.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…13b5backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C or higher on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.