Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
SMU Mustangs vs. Florida State Seminoles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee9b9b35665b97f2ba0fadd0fe10da47581ca8bcd3e077c7c2a58e4b816ebf9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Florida State Seminolesof SMU Mustangs, Florida State Seminoles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,627 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57a8…6933backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 8,575$4,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,030.3 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed SMU Mustangs | 4c | 7,821$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.71 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820 | 123 | 64.2%79 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 3,333$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.51 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 3,097$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.59 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 2,658$1,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.08 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4d…8e7ebacked SMU Mustangs | 47c | 2,007$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.48 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked SMU Mustangs | 47c | 1,983$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.97 | 269 | 45.7%123 W · 146 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f1…e2aabacked SMU Mustangs | 47c | 1,889$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed SMU Mustangs | 8c | 1,110$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Florida State Seminoles | 56c | 802.75$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.05 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Florida State Seminoles | 54c | 699.17$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.62 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed SMU Mustangs | 45c | 660.31$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.99 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf14d…b5f1backed Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 640$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91cb…3f90backed Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 640$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked SMU Mustangs | 47c | 638.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 632.73$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.38 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed SMU Mustangs | 48c | 624.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.76 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39c…2f36backed Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 614.59$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked SMU Mustangs | 46c | 542.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.54 | 267 | 49.1%131 W · 136 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked SMU Mustangs | 29c | 416.36$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 226 | 40.7%92 W · 134 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked SMU Mustangs | 46c | 397.67$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.93 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Florida State Seminoles | 52c | 357.35$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.53 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked SMU Mustangs | 5c | 333.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked SMU Mustangs | 28c | 319.16$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.36 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Florida State Seminoles | 56c | 236.25$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.92 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed SMU Mustangs | 6c | 219.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad5…ac2ebacked SMU Mustangs | 43c | 208.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.23 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked SMU Mustangs | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked SMU Mustangs | 47c | 198.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 388 | 37.6%146 W · 242 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Florida State Seminoles | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Florida State Seminoles | 54c | 183.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Florida State Seminoles | 55c | 181.86$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Florida State Seminoles | 55c | 180.24$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed SMU Mustangs | 8c | 168.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 558 | 40.3%225 W · 333 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SMU Mustangs | 20c | 160.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked SMU Mustangs | 47c | 147.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Florida State Seminoles | 63c | 111.57$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…b054backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 105.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 135 | 65.9%89 W · 46 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed SMU Mustangs | 48c | 103.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Florida State Seminoles | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 93.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 93.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 230 | 54.3%125 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 86.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed SMU Mustangs | 41c | 78.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ed…0a9fbacked SMU Mustangs | 49c | 63.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 430 | 53.3%229 W · 201 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453f…6b3bbacked SMU Mustangs | 48c | 54.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…a7b8backed Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 49.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…01a8backed Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 46.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed SMU Mustangs | 40c | 37.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 334 | 45.8%153 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 25.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafa…3471backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Florida State Seminoles | 59c | 20.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 19.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 379 | 47.8%181 W · 198 L | -26.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc6…7affbacked Florida State Seminoles | 54c | 18.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Florida State Seminoles | 69c | 17.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Florida State Seminoles | 63c | 16.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SMU Mustangs vs. Florida State Seminolesthis page
- SMU Mustangs vs. Florida State Seminoles: O/U 158.5Over won
- SMU Mustangs vs. Florida State Seminoles: O/U 160.5Over won
- Spread: Florida State Seminoles (-1.5)Florida State Seminoles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.