Tennis · resolved market
Elena Rybakina vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeeafdda35a2e7da1be8779ec7cd1e3b844c05c12b9eddd7fbb025ab63d89817b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,991 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 946.8$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.8 | 378 | 54%204 W · 174 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 58c | 905$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.9 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 2.5 | 22c | 808.96$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.71 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…e6ccbacked Under 2.5 | 54c | 446.3$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 441.3$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.3 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under 2.5 | 32c | 428.61$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.71 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 379.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.4 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 350.67$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.67 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…98abbacked Over 2.5 | 58c | 340.87$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.63 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 323.81$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.81 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under 2.5 | 58c | 202.22$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.29 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ac…a09bbacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 198.13$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Over 2.5 | 53c | 186.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 146 | 39%57 W · 89 L | -14.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under 2.5 | 10c | 174$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed Over 2.5 | 58c | 173.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 155 | 48.4%75 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…2ef4backed Over 2.5 | 58c | 171.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…511fbacked Over 2.5 | 64c | 156.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under 2.5 | 48c | 130$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…f988backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x978f…e14dbacked Under 2.5 | 51c | 98.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -26.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa04e…3550backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 72.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…2bcdbacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 59.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…0801backed Over 2.5 | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18b…51b9backed Over 2.5 | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over 2.5 | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 239 | 45.6%109 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 39.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 701 | 48.2%338 W · 363 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcc…5ae5backed Over 2.5 | 59c | 37.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 35.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…ab39backed Over 2.5 | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Over 2.5 | 47c | 26.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…27fbbacked Over 2.5 | 64c | 25.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…20e6backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c9…476dbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Elena Rybakina vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica PegulaElena Rybakina won
- Rybakina vs. Pegula: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Pegula: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Pegula: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Pegula: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Rybakina vs. Pegula: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs PegulaPegula won
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5)Pegula won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.