Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs Pegula
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17959eb8a31f58a67f36b64c156ab0a656c06274bb6f8020b1b8b3cb9b5a3402
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pegulaof Rybakina, Pegula
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,959 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6aee…fad4backed Rybakina | 61c | 6,886$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c45…cf06backed Rybakina | 66c | 2,600$1,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,707.11 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a4…ebccbacked Rybakina | 2c | 2,036$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pegula | 38c | 1,498$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.61 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Pegula | 36c | 1,425$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.6 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Rybakina | 13c | 1,076$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.51 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Pegula | 35c | 1,046$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Pegula | 36c | 1,008$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.39 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pegula | 38c | 967.96$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.04 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5788…b08cbacked Pegula | 39c | 883.9$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.76 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Rybakina | 64c | 864$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.96 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Pegula | 40c | 810.06$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.05 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Pegula | 37c | 599.99$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Pegula | 37c | 568$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.84 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Pegula | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 239 | 45.6%109 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Rybakina | 52c | 484.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…d5d0backed Rybakina | 67c | 468.72$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.78 | 250 | 62.8%157 W · 93 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Pegula | 37c | 450.22$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.74 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Pegula | 40c | 413.74$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.68 | 1,579 | 39.8%629 W · 950 L | -34.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Pegula | 39c | 346.13$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.14 | 1,123 | 50.3%565 W · 558 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Rybakina | 63c | 316.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…af49backed Rybakina | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…6ffebacked Pegula | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8e…f961backed Rybakina | 5c | 277.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f50…8341backed Rybakina | 64c | 250$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.78 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Rybakina | 15c | 226.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Rybakina | 6c | 218.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 255 | 0.8%2 W · 253 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Pegula | 49c | 211.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.94 | 556 | 60.3%335 W · 221 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Rybakina | 8c | 207$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…85d4backed Rybakina | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 268 | 33.6%90 W · 178 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Rybakina | 63c | 199.34$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Pegula | 38c | 175.01$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.88 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Pegula | 37c | 151.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rybakina | 14c | 135.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ce…0a8ebacked Rybakina | 10c | 129.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Pegula | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 190 | 52.6%100 W · 90 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Rybakina | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 167 | 18.6%31 W · 136 L | -23.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Pegula | 39c | 81.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…be26backed Rybakina | 65c | 81.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 430 | 62.3%268 W · 162 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Pegula | 37c | 81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e1…52febacked Rybakina | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…6679backed Rybakina | 66c | 76.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Pegula | 37c | 68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 228 | 47.4%108 W · 120 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Pegula | 37c | 68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 292 | 44.5%130 W · 162 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…fea3backed Rybakina | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pegula | 37c | 62.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…d6c6backed Pegula | 37c | 55.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d0…1a1abacked Rybakina | 60c | 48.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe96d…e87fbacked Rybakina | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Pegula | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 476 | 53.2%253 W · 223 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…2e44backed Pegula | 42c | 39.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Rybakina | 55c | 31.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…f319backed Pegula | 49c | 30.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Rybakina | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Pegula | 37c | 29.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Pegula | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Rybakina | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…e905backed Rybakina | 63c | 17.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs Pegulathis page
- Elena Rybakina vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica PegulaElena Rybakina won
- Rybakina vs. Pegula: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Pegula: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Pegula: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Pegula: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Rybakina vs. Pegula: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5)Pegula won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.