Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80e31fcebdd09c6114e755114810195e00f122de632bc70c3ab813564a03e03f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pegulaof Rybakina, Pegula
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,866 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Rybakina | 1c | 4,215$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Pegula | 56c | 3,000$1,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305 | 239 | 45.6%109 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Pegula | 55c | 2,952$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.19 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2694…415abacked Rybakina | 2c | 2,267$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…4088backed Rybakina | 44c | 2,228$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979 | 181 | 59.7%108 W · 73 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Rybakina | 46c | 2,000$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.52 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Rybakina | 43c | 1,992$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.31 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…fed6backed Pegula | 56c | 1,672$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.07 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5788…b08cbacked Rybakina | 34c | 1,455$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…081abacked Rybakina | 1c | 1,417$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Pegula | 55c | 955.31$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.82 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pegula | 56c | 846$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.02 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked Rybakina | 43c | 756.26$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.19 | 255 | 44.7%114 W · 141 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Pegula | 50c | 647.28$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.64 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +34.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Pegula | 56c | 515.6$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Rybakina | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 747 | 43.6%326 W · 421 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Rybakina | 45c | 411.64$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.24 | 683 | 50.1%342 W · 341 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Rybakina | 41c | 408.95$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.66 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Rybakina | 44c | 342.05$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…ecdbbacked Rybakina | 45c | 306.67$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 489 | 35.8%175 W · 314 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Pegula | 59c | 305.08$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.08 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Rybakina | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 415 | 44.3%184 W · 231 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Rybakina | 45c | 280.12$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.75 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…05c5backed Rybakina | 44c | 252.41$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Rybakina | 45c | 230$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Rybakina | 44c | 227.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…0658backed Pegula | 56c | 226.79$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…0c47backed Rybakina | 44c | 225$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pegula | 66c | 206.74$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.03 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Rybakina | 44c | 201.85$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Pegula | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Rybakina | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 159 | 56%89 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Pegula | 57c | 192.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 135 | 63%85 W · 50 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed Pegula | 58c | 172.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 155 | 48.4%75 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Pegula | 58c | 168$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 556 | 60.3%335 W · 221 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Pegula | 56c | 156.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Rybakina | 45c | 109.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 625 | 34.4%215 W · 410 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Rybakina | 46c | 108.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Rybakina | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 903 | 35.8%323 W · 580 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Pegula | 60c | 88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 167 | 18.6%31 W · 136 L | -23.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Pegula | 57c | 88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 255 | 46.3%118 W · 137 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Pegula | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 603 | 42%253 W · 350 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Pegula | 60c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04e…3550backed Rybakina | 46c | 66.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…d83abacked Pegula | 50c | 63.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 131 | 35.9%47 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Pegula | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Pegula | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Pegula | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Rybakina | 45c | 59.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Pegula | 54c | 54.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Pegula | 58c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Pegula | 54c | 50.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Pegula | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…243ebacked Rybakina | 46c | 44.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Rybakina | 44c | 43.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Rybakina | 42c | 34.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Rybakina | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Pegula | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…9429backed Pegula | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Pegula | 57c | 29.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 364 | 64.3%234 W · 130 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…d6c6backed Pegula | 56c | 26.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Pegula | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5)this page
- Elena Rybakina vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica PegulaElena Rybakina won
- Rybakina vs. Pegula: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Pegula: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Pegula: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Pegula: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Rybakina vs. Pegula: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs PegulaPegula won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.