MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeedaab7b9b6cbf9718d100c6da43d8e9ef1b1242067f6754f35b0d1ee9ac124a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6888…4c79backed No | 52c | 463.64$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.78 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 44c | 461.47$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed No | 56c | 433.15$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.72 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Yes | 50c | 404.82$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.74 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9d…8715backed No | 57c | 339.34$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.45 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Yes | 45c | 274.53$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.31 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed No | 52c | 242.8$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.54 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 46c | 193.52$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.02 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked No | 55c | 176.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed No | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 47c | 168.37$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 42c | 150.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Yes | 45c | 72.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 219 | 48.4%106 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Yes | 45c | 52.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed No | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 70c | 28.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Yes | 45c | 27.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed No | 54c | 23.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigersthis page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit TigersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 13.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.