NBA · resolved market
NBA Play-In: Pelicans vs. Kings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef43aea2c66f60837473944eec44a69c6dd64532b5a4b6cf36ea49d287043aec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Pelicans, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Kings | 54c | 14,303$7,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,664.27 | 155 | 51%79 W · 76 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Pelicans | 47c | 4,400$2,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,332 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked Pelicans | 47c | 3,800$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Pelicans | 49c | 3,580$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,822.22 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Pelicans | 46c | 3,485$1,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.65 | 191 | 52.4%100 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Kings | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Pelicans | 47c | 2,999$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.2 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Pelicans | 47c | 2,573$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.98 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Pelicans | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Pelicans | 47c | 2,000$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…724cbacked Kings | 53c | 1,878$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Pelicans | 51c | 1,028$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.44 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…4c27backed Pelicans | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…fbfdbacked Kings | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.