Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs strongboys (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef6de6c48a4e110118e2468ceabfa558ea27a0c43e95dfa417da971267d8c376
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- strongboysof L1ga Team, strongboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked L1ga Team | 60c | 2,978$1,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.68 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e88…5ddabacked strongboys | 49c | 2,114$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.35 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +11.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…11cbbacked L1ga Team | 54c | 1,089$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff4…9a30backed L1ga Team | 1c | 1,012$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked strongboys | 38c | 953.5$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.83 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked strongboys | 42c | 816.44$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.04 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked strongboys | 44c | 682.89$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked strongboys | 42c | 593.72$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.72 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked strongboys | 43c | 524.26$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.91 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed strongboys | 42c | 510.55$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.4 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked L1ga Team | 60c | 499.44$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked L1ga Team | 64c | 469.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…cf50backed strongboys | 44c | 379.49$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.8 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed L1ga Team | 10c | 332$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked strongboys | 33c | 222.46$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.43 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…735ebacked strongboys | 40c | 212.75$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed strongboys | 27c | 205.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.17 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked L1ga Team | 77c | 200$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.76 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed L1ga Team | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed strongboys | 36c | 190.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.46 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4e1abacked L1ga Team | 55c | 160.24$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed strongboys | 35c | 144$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked strongboys | 43c | 140$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed L1ga Team | 57c | 140$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed strongboys | 37c | 134$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked L1ga Team | 69c | 133.35$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed strongboys | 43c | 133$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked strongboys | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe625…94c0backed L1ga Team | 60c | 100.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…6373backed L1ga Team | 60c | 100.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed strongboys | 36c | 92.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed strongboys | 31c | 83.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed L1ga Team | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed strongboys | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…a8e9backed strongboys | 43c | 77.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefcc…4883backed L1ga Team | 40c | 74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed strongboys | 57c | 70.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked L1ga Team | 57c | 69.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa6…1764backed L1ga Team | 62c | 60.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed strongboys | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed strongboys | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked strongboys | 27c | 42.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…d9cfbacked L1ga Team | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed L1ga Team | 55c | 39.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe91…4462backed L1ga Team | 65c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked strongboys | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed L1ga Team | 57c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed L1ga Team | 57c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked L1ga Team | 57c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed L1ga Team | 61c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed strongboys | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd06…a25dbacked L1ga Team | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…c4d9backed strongboys | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed strongboys | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 45cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed strongboys | 45c | 29.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed L1ga Team | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…d32ebacked L1ga Team | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1976…e363backed strongboys | 66c | 26.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked L1ga Team | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed L1ga Team | 64c | 25.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed L1ga Team | 48c | 25.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…06aabacked L1ga Team | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed L1ga Team | 58c | 23.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a00…0014backed L1ga Team | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked L1ga Team | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…fe4bbacked L1ga Team | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed L1ga Team | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed L1ga Team | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67fe…fc61backed L1ga Team | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…52c8backed L1ga Team | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed L1ga Team | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked L1ga Team | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked L1ga Team | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4182…ae54backed L1ga Team | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked L1ga Team | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb324…e5bebacked strongboys | 74c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcb…5ee0backed strongboys | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs strongboys (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs strongboys - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs strongboys - Game 2 Winnerstrongboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.