Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef70dd8040b074b02289ff2aa4f6582bff0351ed3b28cea1b789a0f1a09d4033
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 558.24$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 475.01$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 363.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 43c | 327.07$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.13 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 7c | 231.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 196.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 13c | 123.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 43c | 115.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 96.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 95.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8385…89a4backed Yes | 20c | 93.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 64c | 75.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 19c | 66.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 57c | 60.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 19c | 60.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 33c | 58.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 57c | 55.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 46c | 55.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 57c | 55.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 21c | 49.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 42.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 56c | 39.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 42c | 38.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 36c | 30.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 61c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 26.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 25.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 24.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfd…5d35backed No | 75c | 22.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 80c | 21.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 57c | 20.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed No | 60c | 17.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 79c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.