Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bbc872ee676d2fae36d442e28c5d1141461f6666bd078b87763a4e5dc462bb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa277…ab9ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,001$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 7c | 400.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 398.81$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.66 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 30c | 224.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 175.08$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0498…7067backed Yes | 30c | 147.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 28c | 140.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 133.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 117.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…a2f2backed Yes | 29c | 103.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 86.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 28c | 86.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 30c | 69.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 78c | 63.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9b…77b6backed Yes | 30c | 57.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 47.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 46.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 45.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 44.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 30c | 42.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 37.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 27.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 73c | 20.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 58c | 20.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 16.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 16.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.