Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42e111b9814a7a13ca38b72a9198b2ee6c84f23c9d2b4a8d11c509f82c9629f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 593.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 13c | 184.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 21c | 183.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 67c | 176.46$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 132.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 102.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 39c | 100.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 14c | 94.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 91.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 90.18$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc3…03f8backed Yes | 13c | 89.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 81.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 71c | 75.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 63c | 73.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…41bcbacked Yes | 14c | 73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 26c | 69.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 64.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 78c | 62.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 60.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 50.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 45.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 37c | 42.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 40.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 39.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed No | 76c | 39.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 65c | 38.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 31.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8385…89a4backed Yes | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x475f…17bcbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c15…5b4bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 74c | 19.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 75c | 18.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 75c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed No | 63c | 16.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 75c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 74c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 16.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.