Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3c2ff6e01faa5fcee12f1d0c8196ed5128fc8fcb5eee67ef4f4327c13d15194
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 1,367$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.99 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 61c | 1,012$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.11 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 27c | 861.19$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.34 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 546.36$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 34c | 389.79$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.96 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 41c | 287.57$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 256.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed No | 38c | 200.57$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 197.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…016bbacked No | 39c | 196.04$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked No | 40c | 191.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 33c | 190.53$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…b34abacked No | 33c | 190.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…d6a7backed No | 33c | 190.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 33c | 190.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 53c | 188.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.29 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 35c | 186.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 52c | 182.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.75 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed No | 27c | 180.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 77c | 179.33$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.1 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed No | 36c | 179.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 36c | 175.78$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.15 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 71c | 168.37$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…ad7fbacked No | 46c | 157.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 154.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.3 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 60c | 154.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 148.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 65c | 140.88$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 137.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed No | 36c | 129.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 54c | 129.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 62c | 126.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 49c | 125$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 76c | 111.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 110.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 79c | 102.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 69c | 98.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 36c | 83.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 69c | 82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 69c | 72.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 71.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 71.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 35c | 70.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed No | 26c | 67.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…d113backed No | 36c | 64.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 63c | 63.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 53c | 62.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed No | 38c | 62.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 49c | 61.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 36c | 61.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 59.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 33c | 55.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 54.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa873…6b47backed Yes | 41c | 54.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…3d1ebacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes | 67c | 42.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 42.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 30c | 39.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 28c | 35.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac67…e084backed Yes | 56c | 35.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 34c | 35.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 44c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…f288backed No | 60c | 34.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 54c | 33.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed No | 46c | 32.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f901backed No | 54c | 31.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 44cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 62c | 30.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 73c | 29.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 76c | 27.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8385…89a4backed Yes | 41c | 26.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 74c | 25.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…c93fbacked Yes | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…56a5backed Yes | 66c | 21.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 52c | 19.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 65c | 17.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6397…7b86backed Yes | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 15.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.