TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,753
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,200

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,753 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes52c1,367$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.994,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes61c1,012$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.1165749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No27c861.19$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.3490040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No33c546.36$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.9812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No34c389.79$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.961,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed No41c287.57$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4243050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No10c256.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.936219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd2…c304backed No38c200.57$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5116038.8%62 W · 98 L+18.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+123.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c197.48$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0f16…016bbacked No39c196.04$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.682927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-35.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca9c…e62bbacked No40c191.4$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.757132.4%23 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1385…e96abacked No33c190.53$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6613732.1%44 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7087…b34abacked No33c190.52$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.651533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d2b…d6a7backed No33c190.52$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.651637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed No33c190.52$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6519133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes53c188.69$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.2963538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2250…4cd7backed No35c186.88$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9511950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No52c182.1$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7538860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed No27c180.1$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.637846.2%36 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed No77c179.33$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.150648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed No36c179.17$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0818222%40 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes36c175.78$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.151,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7284…b0f2backed Yes71c168.37$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6511242%47 W · 65 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76b…ad7fbacked No46c157.88$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.153724.3%9 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes31c154.77$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.38,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes60c154.51$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.041,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No67c148.16$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39be…aac9backed Yes65c140.88$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.843855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes32c137.38$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.0910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc29…b3b6backed No36c129.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.548252.4%43 W · 39 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc89f…14a9backed Yes54c129.13$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.0318650.5%94 W · 92 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes62c126.92$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0633561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes49c125$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.81,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7353…b6c5backed Yes76c111.28$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2918347%86 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No11c110.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.976,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes79c102.72$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.322,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes69c98.13$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.442,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4699…695abacked Yes36c83.98$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3812072.5%87 W · 33 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes69c82$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.121,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc16…1094backed Yes69c72.54$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.547143.7%31 W · 40 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes55c71.42$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.246,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No58c71.3$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.44,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe43f…a889backed No35c70.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.317457.5%100 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…d8b2backed No26c67.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.586418.8%12 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc524…d113backed No36c64.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.231580%12 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b35…bb20backed Yes63c63.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.868263.4%52 W · 30 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No53c62.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.021,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed No38c62.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4154154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No49c61.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4598160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No36c61.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9661752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes36c59.66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.023,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No33c55.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2880957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No53c54.46$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.64,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa873…6b47backed Yes41c54.13$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.13837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a6a…3d1ebacked No36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.961637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-37.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.215630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No32c45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4337465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes67c42.11$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.772839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No58c42.1$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.232,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No30c39.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5954234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No28c35.77$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0266944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac67…e084backed Yes56c35.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.75683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick73cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No34c35.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe44…5d00backed No44c34.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4210345.6%47 W · 56 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa057…f288backed No60c34.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.33053.3%16 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes54c33.63$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.562,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No56c33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.452,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed No46c32.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7913423.1%31 W · 103 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca16…f901backed No54c31.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.151618.8%3 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.25per pick44cpaid-66.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes62c30.79$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.782,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.753,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed Yes73c29.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0738560.3%232 W · 153 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes76c27.09$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.442,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa957…7638backed Yes73c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.374555.6%25 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No64c27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.281,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8385…89a4backed Yes41c26.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.433823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No74c25.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7845253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb7…c93fbacked Yes76c24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.77666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x517d…56a5backed Yes66c21.23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.23475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d55…7cbabacked No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10230%0 W · 23 L-6.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3266735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4df…e6cfbacked No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.813862.3%86 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes52c19.88$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.592,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No65c17.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.221,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6397…7b86backed Yes66c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.84475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c15.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.19,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.