Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefea3550c44db67df810c9d8ef4193aa5cb0d31f3b335b1a37511b99048e4eee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 40c | 463$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.67 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 343.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 262.5$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 39c | 257.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.39 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 200.08$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 58c | 191.65$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 182.35$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 41c | 180.07$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 37c | 159.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.61 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 43c | 140.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 29c | 131.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 125$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 123.74$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed No | 61c | 121.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 78c | 119.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 109.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 103.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 41c | 81.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 47c | 78.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 78c | 76.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 64c | 73.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 78c | 63.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 62c | 59.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 18c | 57.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8e…f599backed Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbd…f2c6backed No | 54c | 50.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 68c | 48.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 75c | 47.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 46.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bc…a7dabacked Yes | 65c | 46.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 76c | 44.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 40c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe4…f53bbacked Yes | 71c | 42.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 41.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 39c | 39.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…3ae7backed Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 44c | 38.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 39c | 36.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 61c | 35.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 33.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked Yes | 79c | 31.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 48c | 31.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 64c | 28.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 47c | 28.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 37c | 28.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 50c | 25.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked No | 62c | 24.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 58c | 24.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2a…040ebacked No | 69c | 23.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +493.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 22.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 47c | 21.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 16.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.