Tennis · resolved market
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tommy Paul vs. Alex de Minaur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf05352c0051301742e703e42558f4aa9391f83435c4d5d971d6031a6d92954d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paulof Paul, de Minaur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Paul | 42c | 31,581$13,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,207.21 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e11…9bacbacked de Minaur | 57c | 30,435$17,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,237.68 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed de Minaur | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Paul | 40c | 1,355$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.2 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed de Minaur | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Paul | 55c | 731.12$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.04 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Paul | 63c | 690$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.3 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked de Minaur | 65c | 400$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed de Minaur | 61c | 386.43$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.72 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked de Minaur | 65c | 326$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.9 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Paul | 34c | 306.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.48 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Paul | 38c | 300$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…dc3bbacked Paul | 36c | 275$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79e…1adcbacked Paul | 36c | 270$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Paul | 54c | 251$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.79 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…d61abacked Paul | 36c | 250$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa90c…82e8backed Paul | 36c | 205$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Paul | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ff…835dbacked de Minaur | 64c | 160$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x140a…5b52backed de Minaur | 64c | 155$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa712…c667backed de Minaur | 64c | 155$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…5cc4backed de Minaur | 64c | 155$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…c97bbacked de Minaur | 64c | 155$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb6…9496backed de Minaur | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eca…01f2backed de Minaur | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked de Minaur | 74c | 97.87$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed de Minaur | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc85…b081backed de Minaur | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8d…9fcdbacked de Minaur | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed de Minaur | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked de Minaur | 62c | 46.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed de Minaur | 65c | 45.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Paul | 56c | 34.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Paul | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.