Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Missouri State Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf05911742cb6d62ff73bafb83ab6f8b9567352dad9a0d6b3ec144c3537e2f154
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sam Houston Bearkatsof Sam Houston Bearkats, Missouri State Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Missouri State Bears | 53c | 906.29$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.27 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Missouri State Bears | 38c | 782.9$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.35 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 47c | 779$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.04 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Missouri State Bears | 53c | 559.04$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.29 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 46c | 490$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.4 | 267 | 40.8%109 W · 158 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 47c | 471$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.63 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Missouri State Bears | 53c | 395.67$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.27 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Missouri State Bears | 53c | 343.79$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.32 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 56c | 302.71$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Missouri State Bears | 48c | 273.43$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.97 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 46c | 269.27$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.48 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 47c | 212.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 60c | 176.74$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 65c | 175.65$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 57c | 166.12$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 441 | 46.5%205 W · 236 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 47c | 155$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.15 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 54c | 151.62$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Missouri State Bears | 53c | 130$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 383 | 43.6%167 W · 216 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 47c | 120.16$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Missouri State Bears | 55c | 110.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 45c | 100.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e0…b08ebacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 61c | 95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 369 | 42.3%156 W · 213 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 57c | 73.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 47c | 67.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 159 | 47.2%75 W · 84 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Missouri State Bears | 55c | 63.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 48c | 62.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Missouri State Bears | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Missouri State Bears | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Missouri State Bears | 55c | 50.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Missouri State Bears | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Missouri State Bears | 58c | 44.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 480 | 51%245 W · 235 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Missouri State Bears | 58c | 37.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Missouri State Bears | 54c | 34.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Missouri State Bears | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 50c | 26.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.42per pick | 44cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked Missouri State Bears | 43c | 24.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 703 | 49.6%349 W · 354 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 252 | 46.4%117 W · 135 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,003 | 55.3%555 W · 448 L | +46.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x862d…2632backed Missouri State Bears | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Missouri State Bearsthis page
- Spread: Missouri State Bears (-1.5)Sam Houston Bearkats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.