MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf07908933f4d965d16a8c4ed85cafdcd3cf1881bb7fb6fe591aa09527049839d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 59c | 5,985$3,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,458.67 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae1…9fadbacked Over | 44c | 5,949$2,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,331.67 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 56c | 5,948$3,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,330.72 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Under | 41c | 4,868$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.93 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 53c | 1,555$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.15 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 47c | 1,506$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.94 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 38c | 752.82$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.99 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 562.26$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.88 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 55c | 376.51$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.08 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 374.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.02 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Under | 56c | 346.77$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.74 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 51c | 281.67$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.02 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 252.48$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.82 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 214.04$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 44c | 206.96$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.9 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…aedbbacked Under | 41c | 196.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 45c | 189.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.48 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 56c | 158.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 45c | 81.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 48c | 50.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 57c | 39.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 41c | 38.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 41c | 35.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 45c | 32.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 45c | 26.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue JaysMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-5.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-6.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.