MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90dbea7ad61cbf13f7ee7f840676fc61b2d0f963e059df90f362eeeebcbfc59e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x661f…098abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 14,477$5,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,066.99 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 12,800$8,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,489.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 10,529$3,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,895.75 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 9,937$6,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,681.1 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 600$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 586.51$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.79 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 543.48$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.22 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 534.68$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.14 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 17c | 391.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 269.77$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.75 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 229.48$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 207.65$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 205$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 192.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 176$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Minnesota Twins | 51c | 133.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 102.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 98.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 98.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 93.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 92.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 84.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 73.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 72.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 67.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 16c | 65.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 280 | 53.9%151 W · 129 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Minnesota Twins | 65c | 60.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 58.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Minnesota Twins | 47c | 58.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…8ec0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 51.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 49.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Minnesota Twins | 65c | 47.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Minnesota Twins | 33c | 42.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…e6bbbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 38.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 37.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Minnesota Twins | 33c | 30.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 29.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 29.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Minnesota Twins | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Minnesota Twins | 51c | 21.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…b8f8backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 19.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 135 | 49.6%67 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…822dbacked Minnesota Twins | 75c | 17.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue JaysMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-5.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-6.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.