NHL · resolved market
Spread: Devils (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf07e83abbe1535f3136854686ec588156efc021c1de732d0fe2f8c1ea905f960
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Devilsof Devils, Wild
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Wild | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Devils | 49c | 2,791$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.23 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc29a…7816backed Wild | 66c | 1,285$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.79 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Devils | 32c | 1,209$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.09 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Devils | 34c | 966$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.56 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Wild | 67c | 849.5$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.93 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Devils | 49c | 787.76$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.76 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Devils | 33c | 606.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.05 | 236 | 53.8%127 W · 109 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Wild | 66c | 294.12$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Devils | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac0…52b6backed Devils | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Devils | 33c | 176.74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.62 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Wild | 51c | 115.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Devils | 31c | 114.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)this page
- Wild vs. DevilsDevils won
- Wild vs. Devils: O/U 5.5Under won
- Wild vs. Devils: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.