WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf089ef4ede2d1bda2016837a39100ca9417fa5b140aff4a9a561ef2eebd3e4f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof Phoenix Mercury, Chicago Sky
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 5,399$2,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,881.85 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Chicago Sky | 54c | 4,734$2,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,553.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 2,031$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Chicago Sky | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f2…b422backed Chicago Sky | 53c | 959$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.22 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Chicago Sky | 53c | 905.66$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 720.91$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.29 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…abcebacked Chicago Sky | 52c | 634.62$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 525.56$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.55 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Chicago Sky | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Chicago Sky | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 189.43$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.13 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 177$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3354…5042backed Chicago Sky | 58c | 172.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Chicago Sky | 52c | 165$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8874…ba49backed Phoenix Mercury | 63c | 158.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Chicago Sky | 52c | 87.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Chicago Sky | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Phoenix Mercury | 41c | 53.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…7e93backed Chicago Sky | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Chicago Sky | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)this page
- Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury won
- Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 165.5Over won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.