TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Phoenix Mercuryof Chicago Sky, Phoenix Mercury
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$125,448
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$137,667

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,448 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1117…3532backed Chicago Sky38c24,095$9,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,065.2113950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury74c16,057$11,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,192.9599548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Chicago Sky27c11,952$3,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,170.586851.5%35 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Phoenix Mercury62c10,832$6,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,066.8323245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Chicago Sky36c5,578$1,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.6412045%54 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Phoenix Mercury62c5,474$3,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,080.1236154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Phoenix Mercury62c4,200$2,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,609.459549.5%47 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Phoenix Mercury63c4,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,48027449.6%136 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Phoenix Mercury52c3,823$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,841.821560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+50.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Chicago Sky28c3,250$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.764829.2%14 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbfb…84a6backed Chicago Sky33c2,887$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.61728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc450…2256backed Chicago Sky35c2,868$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Phoenix Mercury67c2,695$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.718762.1%54 W · 33 L-0.4wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a47…235bbacked Chicago Sky7c2,499$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.94825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+106%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Chicago Sky33c2,187$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.9819428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury72c2,120$1,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.781,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Chicago Sky24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4803732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-34.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Chicago Sky35c1,634$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.3731448.4%152 W · 162 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb416…4588backed Phoenix Mercury71c1,599$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.68475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+51.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Chicago Sky40c1,588$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6347443.2%32 W · 42 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Phoenix Mercury75c1,556$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.9220947.4%99 W · 110 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Chicago Sky21c1,544$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.661643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+57%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Phoenix Mercury78c1,393$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30855255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Chicago Sky18c1,001$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.7712745.7%58 W · 69 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Phoenix Mercury64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36010249%50 W · 52 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x78bc…5616backed Chicago Sky8c941.81$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.52040%8 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Chicago Sky43c776.9$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.3524852.4%130 W · 118 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Phoenix Mercury60c770.39$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.616746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Phoenix Mercury62c744.2$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.69714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.42per pick56cpaid-76.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Sky48c646$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.9310858.3%63 W · 45 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Phoenix Mercury79c630.35$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.376749.3%33 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Phoenix Mercury61c626.02$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.153842.1%16 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Phoenix Mercury62c622.75$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.672138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3bc…bef3backed Chicago Sky7c606.22$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+107.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa7…e3d9backed Chicago Sky37c585.97$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.894617.4%8 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury69c583.36$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.5485158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Phoenix Mercury62c573.68$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2181850%9 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9735…b03bbacked Chicago Sky7c572$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Chicago Sky40c561.99$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.2214936.9%55 W · 94 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Phoenix Mercury71c547.88$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.2337850%189 W · 189 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x659f…c105backed Chicago Sky34c541.44$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.26650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Chicago Sky37c536.32$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.5713024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Sky43c509.68$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.1426147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Chicago Sky37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18510548.6%51 W · 54 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Phoenix Mercury62c499.98$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.992673.1%19 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Chicago Sky45c495.82$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2256237.1%23 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Phoenix Mercury71c464.52$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.456237.1%23 W · 39 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Phoenix Mercury62c462.13$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.612245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…dd9fbacked Chicago Sky22c447.9$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Phoenix Mercury62c423.88$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.0732049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Chicago Sky12c422.36$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.728228%23 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58a6…b9debacked Chicago Sky50c403.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Chicago Sky38c400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Chicago Sky13c400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524027.5%11 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Chicago Sky10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405156.9%29 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Chicago Sky32c361.35$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9819031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Phoenix Mercury71c335.67$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.4161042.5%259 W · 351 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ec7…2b6bbacked Phoenix Mercury64c311.85$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.851471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+28.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf8e…6fb9backed Chicago Sky7c308.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.742321.7%5 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Phoenix Mercury58c291.4$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.799129.7%27 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Chicago Sky39c271.58$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8720642.7%88 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Phoenix Mercury78c266.26$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5810144.6%45 W · 56 L-13.5wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-25%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x82e2…0cf6backed Phoenix Mercury77c260.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Chicago Sky38c259.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Chicago Sky39c259.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.036051.7%31 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Chicago Sky43c259$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.17451.4%38 W · 36 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+11.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa0c5…e717backed Phoenix Mercury46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Phoenix Mercury70c210.88$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2250952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Phoenix Mercury65c210$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.52857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Chicago Sky36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7221337.6%80 W · 133 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Chicago Sky15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301764.7%11 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Phoenix Mercury63c200$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7512144.6%54 W · 67 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Phoenix Mercury64c194$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.842250%11 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Phoenix Mercury79c190$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.98051.3%41 W · 39 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed Phoenix Mercury73c189.69$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.693100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Chicago Sky47c183.56$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.136254.8%34 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Chicago Sky47c175.79$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.939743.3%42 W · 55 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked Chicago Sky47c168.44$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Chicago Sky36c160$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5815250.7%77 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Phoenix Mercury66c154$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.362552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x315b…1c9fbacked Chicago Sky8c151.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7e0…a433backed Phoenix Mercury77c145.04$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.94475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Phoenix Mercury69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9311353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Phoenix Mercury69c143$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.713342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7a6…f48bbacked Chicago Sky35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x97dc…d8a5backed Chicago Sky37c136.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf182…112bbacked Chicago Sky55c134.11$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.7wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-48%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Chicago Sky24c132.28$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.79908.9%8 W · 82 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…6e9bbacked Chicago Sky47c126.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Chicago Sky25c123.47$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.462339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+39.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9132…6607backed Chicago Sky10c120$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1643…1b0cbacked Phoenix Mercury72c111.82$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.824100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x847b…274cbacked Chicago Sky23c105.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.451723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x18ed…590abacked Phoenix Mercury77c100.73$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed88…e838backed Phoenix Mercury77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cee…bd00backed Chicago Sky37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed Phoenix Mercury61c99.98$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.991127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick52cpaid-46.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c4d…5762backed Chicago Sky55c98.76$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed Chicago Sky38c93.82$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.727964.6%51 W · 28 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08f6…cd51backed Chicago Sky21c91.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.