Mls · resolved market
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0bbba7c82840dbd9645a725eba6f362158768bcb0750b4d4ca5cf8749bd9761
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 38c | 22,704$8,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,149.34 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 62c | 17,715$11,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,042.66 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Yes | 41c | 17,385$7,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,256.96 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 59c | 6,867$4,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,051.53 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 4,051$2,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,666.76 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034b…b22bbacked No | 59c | 2,625$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed No | 59c | 2,612$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 59c | 2,585$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.43 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 59c | 1,445$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.53 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 70c | 1,419$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.14 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 76c | 1,390$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.2 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 35c | 729.47$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.38 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 59c | 568$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.12 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 51c | 527.92$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.49 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 42c | 476$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.08 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 10c | 472.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.71 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 54c | 405.99$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.56 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 61c | 404.74$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.36 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 71c | 394.69$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.96 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 14c | 242.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.87 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 10c | 216$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.4 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 58c | 180$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 25c | 137$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.75 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 23c | 132.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 43c | 122.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 63c | 109.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 58c | 106$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…dea4backed Yes | 25c | 78.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 59c | 75.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…4303backed Yes | 58c | 67.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked No | 60c | 64.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed No | 59c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 24c | 46.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…c62abacked Yes | 40c | 39.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 32c | 35.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 39c | 34.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…a583backed Yes | 70c | 29.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 61c | 21.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-02-21?No won
- Will Houston Dynamo vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.