Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0d00b487fe9c2f34715b1803fe000aa3869a2de496b7123dbf1cb08ce210072
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 3,422$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 1,210$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.98 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 25c | 497.86$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.92 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 19c | 438.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…f22cbacked No | 74c | 403.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4186…d8a0backed No | 78c | 389.59$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 19c | 367.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 308.65$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 23c | 298.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 254$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 220.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 167.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 142.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 142$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 137.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 71c | 111$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2c…da3fbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 23c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 73c | 84.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 68.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 75c | 63.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 73c | 60.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 21c | 59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7abfbacked Yes | 21c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 41c | 48.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 44.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 60c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 29c | 40.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 76c | 31.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 79c | 28.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 25.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 78c | 25.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…b550backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 65c | 23.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 70c | 23.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 66c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 73c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked No | 60c | 19.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 18.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 63c | 18.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 80c | 15.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.