Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7306d34541bc7368e82946727413921a3742ac1a90b3e22d4d334f4cf65cf7ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 21c | 502.12$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.27 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 394.64$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.27 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…c84bbacked Yes | 29c | 341.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 336.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 24c | 246.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 206$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 191.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 177$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 23c | 151.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 145.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 31c | 123.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Yes | 24c | 114.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 16c | 108$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 16c | 81.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 79.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 24c | 75.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 25c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…9460backed Yes | 28c | 59.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 54.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 51.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…cee0backed No | 70c | 45.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 22c | 45.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 30c | 41.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 38.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 37.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 33c | 36.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 35.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 71c | 30.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 75c | 22.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6648…f69abacked No | 78c | 22.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 18.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.