Asian League · resolved market
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-03-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0e1ed992f011c655f10be9484bc9785eb45c6ff8054a346d2ead3a41637a429
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,955 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 50c | 6,069$3,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,051.75 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 50c | 4,736$2,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,361.85 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 63c | 885$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.31 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 46c | 638$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.84 | 105 | 25.7%27 W · 78 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 40c | 594.04$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.61 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed No | 6c | 455$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 54c | 305$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.47 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…47c8backed No | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.59 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 23c | 197.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 53c | 185.18$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked No | 23c | 177.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked No | 67c | 138.71$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.94 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed No | 53c | 111.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 62c | 94.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 307 | 50.8%156 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 38c | 94.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 56c | 75.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 53.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 40c | 50.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb9…54b5backed No | 53c | 48.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 50c | 47.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6058…1327backed Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Yes | 52c | 36.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 46c | 35.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Yes | 35c | 34.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…f05dbacked Yes | 47c | 33.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 58c | 32.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 57c | 27.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 73c | 16.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-03-15?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-03-15?No won
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.