Euroleague · resolved market
Beijing Ducks vs. Fujian Sturgeons
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf104e909ba037cdc18a8c3f49b0f1391c0719207f4b8261a7d468f72833b9320
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Beijing Ducksof Beijing Ducks, Fujian Sturgeons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Beijing Ducks | 70c | 1,915$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.7 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Fujian Sturgeons | 30c | 1,702$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.32 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Fujian Sturgeons | 20c | 1,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +10.8wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Fujian Sturgeons | 13c | 378$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Fujian Sturgeons | 13c | 293.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Fujian Sturgeons | 31c | 218.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 316 | 51.6%163 W · 153 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ee…7774backed Fujian Sturgeons | 19c | 195.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Beijing Ducks | 80c | 191$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Beijing Ducks | 74c | 173.47$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Fujian Sturgeons | 14c | 162$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 40cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Fujian Sturgeons | 6c | 161.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 159 | 8.2%13 W · 146 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fujian Sturgeons | 17c | 136.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 343 | 44.3%152 W · 191 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Fujian Sturgeons | 24c | 117.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 265 | 44.5%118 W · 147 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Fujian Sturgeons | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b96…f098backed Fujian Sturgeons | 28c | 63.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…899bbacked Fujian Sturgeons | 18c | 62.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 209 | 36.4%76 W · 133 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…1b6dbacked Beijing Ducks | 77c | 60.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb58c…5fc5backed Beijing Ducks | 73c | 47.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19b…297bbacked Beijing Ducks | 75c | 43.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe974…bb41backed Beijing Ducks | 74c | 40.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Fujian Sturgeons | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.