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Europa Conference League · resolved market

KF Shkëndija 79 vs. Hibernian FC: O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,092
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,094

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,092 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under6c4,000$240 inWon+$3,7602,73840.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L-1.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over77c1,477$1,144 inLost-$1,143.563,72647%1,750 W · 1,976 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over68c980.18$669 inLost-$668.733,24742.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L+4.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under33c839.49$273 inWon+$566.172,79534.8%973 W · 1,822 L-86.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Over37c720$266 inLost-$266.3511828.8%34 W · 84 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under10c585.03$57 inWon+$528.221,89538.7%734 W · 1,161 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over72c458.72$329 inLost-$329.3193341.4%386 W · 547 L-15.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c8…142bbacked Under11c441.27$48 inWon+$393.279520%19 W · 76 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Over61c387.13$234 inLost-$234.393961.5%24 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67d6…6562backed Over45c344.31$155 inLost-$1551735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over32c291.41$92 inLost-$92.431,22245.3%553 W · 669 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over14c221.41$31 inLost-$30.6383733%276 W · 561 L-12.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Under6c212.66$13 inWon+$199.932636.5%119 W · 207 L-20.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9bda…d4a0backed Over62c159.99$98 inLost-$98.42962.1%18 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaba…cf38backed Over59c134.7$80 inLost-$79.99955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168c…f24bbacked Under58c110.34$64 inWon+$46.342065%13 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Over57c74.33$42 inLost-$4210344.7%46 W · 57 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5974…5c32backed Over78c71.15$55 inLost-$55.53557.1%20 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Over23c69.99$16 inLost-$15.85016%8 W · 42 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-42.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Under36c53.46$19 inWon+$34.4347036%169 W · 301 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over63c52.38$33 inLost-$3319545.6%89 W · 106 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked Under43c45.24$20 inWon+$25.657364.4%47 W · 26 L+9.3wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+20.6%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xe7e1…b1aebacked Over66c44$29 inLost-$29.041546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Over78c42$33 inLost-$32.7653564.7%346 W · 189 L+29.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Over78c39.34$31 inLost-$30.7785260.9%519 W · 333 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Over68c33.34$23 inLost-$22.5254353.8%292 W · 251 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x434a…91cbbacked Over78c32.37$25 inLost-$25.254544.4%20 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked Over79c30.84$24 inLost-$24.365971.2%42 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Over50c30$15 inLost-$1527047.4%128 W · 142 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under41c27.95$12 inWon+$16.3953747.9%257 W · 280 L-1.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c52…99e1backed Over79c25.06$20 inLost-$19.794278.6%33 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under46c24.27$11 inWon+$13.0534754.8%190 W · 157 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Over78c22.98$18 inLost-$17.9758061.9%359 W · 221 L+22.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2470…7ae6backed Over78c20.41$16 inLost-$15.923158.1%18 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick70cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over79c16.95$13 inLost-$13.4729470.1%206 W · 88 L+21.6wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+9.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.