TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,641
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,641

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,641 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox27c3,355$905 inWon+$2,449.910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox73c2,719$1,985 inLost-$1,984.874,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Chicago White Sox73c271.87$198 inLost-$198.471,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox72c200$144 inLost-$1448,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Boston Red Sox28c200$56 inWon+$14431844%140 W · 178 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Chicago White Sox73c135.92$99 inLost-$99.2240658.4%237 W · 169 L+2.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Chicago White Sox73c135.92$99 inLost-$99.2255259.6%329 W · 223 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d1…de26backed Chicago White Sox73c34.25$25 inLost-$2511060.9%67 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox65c20$13 inLost-$1311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e6…86b1backed Chicago White Sox74c16.37$12 inLost-$12.061643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick62cpaid-32.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x41c8…424fbacked Chicago White Sox74c14.88$11 inLost-$10.9620362.6%127 W · 76 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.