MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6406a18b771fbc13d4af6cbee654be547d0e50d89818b6400ac1b52f841d18eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 52c | 3,850$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,848 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 48c | 2,926$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.48 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 48c | 2,132$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.36 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 53c | 1,724$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.85 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 49c | 1,446$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.24 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 48c | 1,001$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.48 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 52c | 997$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.56 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 71c | 924.43$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.05 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 48c | 728.96$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.9 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 45c | 703.05$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.96 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 450.77$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.86 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 47c | 397$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.85 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 350.21$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a7…418abacked Over | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 52c | 310.79$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.18 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 234.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 31c | 227.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 220$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 48c | 218.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 56c | 203.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Under | 52c | 192.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 182$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 47c | 163.09$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 52c | 160$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 150.59$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.74 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked Over | 49c | 147.05$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 47c | 115.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 52c | 99.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703a…391bbacked Over | 49c | 94.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 52c | 91.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 79c | 73.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 49c | 71.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 21c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 22c | 60.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 53c | 58.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Over | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 247 | 49%121 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…8a64backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 48c | 35.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 79c | 27.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 53c | 26.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21e…044abacked Over | 48c | 26.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 41c | 25.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9250…6f76backed Over | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…951ebacked Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 52c | 22.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.