MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43b9014a0562f1773ab07a3cad635ff904016b9ede0f257fee2de281d9926ed7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 6,927$3,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,959.42 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 6,784$2,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,063.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 4,379$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,524.7 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 3,999$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340.35 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 27c | 407.43$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.43 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Chicago White Sox | 28c | 350.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 335.69$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.25 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Chicago White Sox | 71c | 312.67$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.06 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Chicago White Sox | 72c | 296$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 29c | 273$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.83 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Boston Red Sox | 28c | 247$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.84 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 135.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago White Sox | 65c | 116$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Chicago White Sox | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 101.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Chicago White Sox | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 98.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 292 | 51%149 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 97.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Boston Red Sox | 27c | 56.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 53.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 46.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Boston Red Sox | 46c | 44.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Chicago White Sox | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Boston Red Sox | 27c | 38.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 36.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Chicago White Sox | 33c | 35.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Chicago White Sox | 74c | 31.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 30.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Chicago White Sox | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Chicago White Sox | 73c | 24.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.