TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Boston Red Soxof Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,311
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,314

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,311 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox65c1,264$822 inWon+$442.4911,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Chicago White Sox35c714$250 inLost-$249.918741.2%77 W · 110 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox29c420$122 inLost-$121.88,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Boston Red Sox71c418.92$297 inWon+$121.492,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Chicago White Sox35c314.31$110 inLost-$110.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox35c300$105 inLost-$1058,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Chicago White Sox34c179.41$61 inLost-$6144245.5%201 W · 241 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked Boston Red Sox66c172.96$114 inWon+$58.8127454.4%149 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox19c79$15 inLost-$15.018,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago White Sox19c75$14 inLost-$14.253,45651.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L+107.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9412…730ebacked Boston Red Sox67c59.7$40 inWon+$19.77254.2%39 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Boston Red Sox66c45$30 inWon+$15.345252.4%237 W · 215 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Chicago White Sox32c37.56$12 inLost-$12.156435.1%198 W · 366 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Boston Red Sox69c28.98$20 inWon+$8.9894549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Boston Red Sox72c24.24$17 inWon+$6.862,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e5…7994backed Boston Red Sox77c19.4$15 inWon+$4.42969%20 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.