Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf126d94c127d0bb7aa6240fb510ac8119381a4587df4bb737bcf84e18f9db45c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 24c | 3,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 2,597$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.75 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked No | 78c | 2,577$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 1,820$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.63 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 74c | 1,775$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.29 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 26c | 1,554$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 24c | 1,250$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 76c | 954$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.96 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7e…1d5abacked Yes | 28c | 895.71$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b11…a0f9backed Yes | 26c | 615.38$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde4d…bc25backed No | 76c | 605.26$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Yes | 25c | 505.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4697…8b6ebacked No | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Yes | 14c | 376$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 72c | 374.05$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.1 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa223…6b6abacked Yes | 30c | 327.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Yes | 29c | 284.51$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…138bbacked No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 24c | 271.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 73c | 232.25$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…0e6abacked Yes | 24c | 199$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 24c | 160$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…efc0backed Yes | 25c | 157.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Yes | 10c | 145$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 25c | 136$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 75c | 135.38$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…7f65backed No | 76c | 113.58$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f2…2cecbacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 24c | 96.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…7211backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…9d05backed Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 22cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03df…fe72backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 19c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5263…52ccbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735c…a77ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed No | 76c | 25.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?this page
- Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-11-08?Yes won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-11-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.