Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-11-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9195b481065c2b11e58d1dcbc767a345025344893b539e2084b16aec8db66af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 37c | 3,139$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,988.67 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 30c | 2,171$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.24 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 63c | 1,838$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.94 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 28c | 1,714$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.92 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63fa…d1b7backed Yes | 74c | 1,387$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked No | 2c | 1,199$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 64c | 1,163$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.13 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 79c | 1,139$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.47 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf475…8c9ebacked No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 41c | 894$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.22 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Yes | 65c | 801.54$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 39c | 751.2$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.69 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked No | 63c | 700$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 34c | 423.56$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.55 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 5c | 421.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 65c | 420$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked No | 76c | 409$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.63 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 68c | 393$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.93 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 12c | 363.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 56c | 341.6$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.54 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked No | 66c | 336.47$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 69c | 333$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.77 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…2f87backed No | 64c | 313.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 65c | 299.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 36c | 294.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.8 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda71…0acebacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed No | 12c | 221$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f2…2cecbacked Yes | 63c | 157.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 19c | 146.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.55 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 62c | 141.72$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…5cf9backed Yes | 36c | 138.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x662d…d041backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…9780backed Yes | 64c | 121.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +146.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked No | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed No | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…4892backed Yes | 64c | 86.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…f9fbbacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…a9dfbacked No | 38c | 57.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85dc…a6b7backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…d704backed Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 65c | 55.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…a471backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…3269backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f3afbacked Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ce…3b89backed Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 39c | 41.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…3c66backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4307…86fabacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…68f3backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x921e…9a6dbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a7…16c5backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf8…69abbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…6c2bbacked No | 66c | 21.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…b853backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…5407backed No | 66c | 15.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37a…3170backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-11-08?this page
- Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?No won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-11-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.