South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Peñarol end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf13694020eacb5351953ed0f4ef7df081f1d8a2d4289791a9ffb64365f8f0c8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd41a…fd60backed Yes | 60c | 8,856$5,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,542.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 40c | 4,623$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.36 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 48c | 3,217$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.06 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 32c | 3,089$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.26 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 41c | 1,605$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.87 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Yes | 76c | 1,552$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.77 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 65c | 1,469$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.45 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 68c | 1,139$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.31 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed No | 39c | 1,089$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.89 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 68c | 999.75$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.83 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…cfbfbacked Yes | 72c | 638.69$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked No | 28c | 636.24$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.34 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed No | 40c | 530.2$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.08 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 41c | 377.92$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.36 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 41c | 360.61$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.76 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed No | 19c | 290.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yes | 36c | 255.63$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.42 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 36c | 244.76$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.51 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 42c | 231.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.54 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…46e4backed No | 40c | 227.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.93 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Yes | 29c | 183.07$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.19 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…7b16backed No | 34c | 145.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed No | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…200cbacked No | 40c | 120.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 42c | 113.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 42c | 113.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 43c | 112.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 32c | 107.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 57c | 95.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 24c | 94.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…30cfbacked No | 63c | 85.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Yes | 68c | 80.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 35c | 61.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 24c | 58.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 40c | 56.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 26c | 56.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe868…7c4fbacked Yes | 27c | 53.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 68c | 50.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 68c | 48.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe65…0546backed No | 41c | 44.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1272…37e7backed No | 68c | 43.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 51c | 42.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 30c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked No | 65c | 40.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd42…9588backed Yes | 62c | 39.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 55c | 36.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 67c | 32.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed No | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Yes | 65c | 27.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed No | 40c | 25.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed No | 77c | 19.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…44a5backed Yes | 55c | 18.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 70c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 67c | 15.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615c…c1a8backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked No | 76c | 14.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Peñarol end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-04-09?No won
- Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-04-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.