South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-04-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fee61660cb6a94dde41b1a0257b820343967d50f9bc78fa639b3bb27b5baabc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Yes | 14c | 8,960$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.7 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Yes | 13c | 3,410$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.44 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 1,285$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.05 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Yes | 19c | 815.51$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.01 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 9c | 624.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ce…c264backed Yes | 24c | 503.97$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.89 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 8c | 502.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde65…b502backed Yes | 25c | 382$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4999…dea5backed Yes | 10c | 368.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Yes | 14c | 361.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x419c…3f5dbacked Yes | 17c | 314.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 24c | 261.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 16c | 214.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Yes | 15c | 197.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…200cbacked Yes | 16c | 148.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 77c | 147.93$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 15c | 146.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 12c | 139.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 78c | 136.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 10c | 129.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 76c | 112$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Yes | 11c | 111.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 14c | 92.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…1a89backed Yes | 21c | 90.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…5118backed Yes | 25c | 74.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe968…de6fbacked No | 78c | 73.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 61.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d82…b573backed Yes | 25c | 57.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d5…eb36backed Yes | 25c | 44.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…4961backed No | 77c | 38.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 75c | 30.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed No | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8b…2c87backed No | 78c | 13.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-04-09?this page
- Will Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Peñarol end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-04-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.