South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-04-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f20bf38bcd19e5ed92e1961ac83f15583b18f6b012ece1759ae2970bd1891bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,867$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 31c | 1,263$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.5 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked Yes | 34c | 789.14$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.9 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 752.98$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.52 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…cfbfbacked Yes | 76c | 609.04$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.28 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 60c | 428.35$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.74 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…53ebbacked Yes | 71c | 415.18$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.78 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked No | 33c | 232.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.89 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 41c | 210.89$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.84 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Yes | 43c | 179.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 28c | 174.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.21 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed No | 55c | 156.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dc…8d7ebacked Yes | 69c | 155.56$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.34 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed No | 31c | 153.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.72 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde65…b502backed Yes | 52c | 145.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…26febacked Yes | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaede…4e26backed Yes | 24c | 136.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…ea0abacked No | 78c | 116.53$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 82 | 68.3%56 W · 26 L | +8.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 56c | 107.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed No | 56c | 100.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed No | 28c | 95.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 54c | 93.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb792…fa38backed No | 76c | 80.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 24c | 79.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 33c | 78.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 52c | 76.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 56c | 71.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked Yes | 17c | 63.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed No | 30c | 63.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…e42cbacked Yes | 46c | 63.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 23c | 61.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 19c | 57.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked No | 25c | 57.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Yes | 26c | 55.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 60c | 53.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…4961backed No | 55c | 52.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 69c | 49.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 32c | 44.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 80c | 42.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 80c | 42.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 80c | 42.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 80c | 42.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed No | 79c | 37.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 79c | 37.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 79c | 37.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 79c | 37.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 79c | 37.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 79c | 37.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…b2aebacked Yes | 33c | 37.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Yes | 46c | 37.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 80c | 35.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 80c | 35.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…ce7fbacked No | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Yes | 53c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 118 | 63.6%75 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…7e76backed Yes | 61c | 31.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 59c | 30.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 79c | 30.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 79c | 30.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 79c | 30.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked No | 79c | 30.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed No | 79c | 30.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 42c | 28.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Yes | 44c | 27.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 56c | 26.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 290 | 53.8%156 W · 134 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 55c | 24.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 212 | 66.5%141 W · 71 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…8c31backed Yes | 45c | 24.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked No | 79c | 22.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed No | 56c | 19.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 79c | 17.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-04-09?this page
- Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-04-09?No won
- Will Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Peñarol end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.