Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf13a04f143bd6eaac07caa7d341ad803a13272688fdadc533d6c0d6e7ed9ae32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunderland AFCof Chelsea FC, Sunderland AFC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Chelsea FC | 24c | 2,263$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.04 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Sunderland AFC | 76c | 2,215$1,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.69 | 592 | 47.6%282 W · 310 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Chelsea FC | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.93 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sunderland AFC | 78c | 1,617$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.49 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Chelsea FC | 23c | 457.73$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.28 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chelsea FC | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 418 | 50.7%212 W · 206 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chelsea FC | 14c | 373.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 578 | 33%191 W · 387 L | -29.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Chelsea FC | 17c | 344.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…dbfdbacked Chelsea FC | 24c | 323.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Chelsea FC | 24c | 293.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Sunderland AFC | 77c | 237.96$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 144 | 63.2%91 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…2027backed Chelsea FC | 23c | 203.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Sunderland AFC | 76c | 169.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chelsea FC | 24c | 131.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…535dbacked Sunderland AFC | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Sunderland AFC | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 288 | 59.7%172 W · 116 L | +19.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Sunderland AFC | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…ccf6backed Chelsea FC | 24c | 120.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cd…da0dbacked Chelsea FC | 25c | 81.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Chelsea FC | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Sunderland AFC | 75c | 70.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…1dafbacked Sunderland AFC | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Chelsea FC | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…f52ebacked Chelsea FC | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Sunderland AFC | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Sunderland AFC | 76c | 30.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Sunderland AFC | 77c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Sunderland AFC | 77c | 21.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Sunderland AFC | 77c | 13.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 395 | 55.9%221 W · 174 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Sunderland AFC won
- Spread: Sunderland AFC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Sunderland AFC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.