Premier League · resolved market
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba1374d6d3812972114b4c4a5d81bebb9f9012332306853134da1839e0c65991
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6cd…2f2cbacked Over | 74c | 58,291$42,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,320.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 38,118$9,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,788.37 | 6,217 | 45.6%2,834 W · 3,383 L | -33.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 28c | 15,326$4,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,254.98 | 783 | 42.5%333 W · 450 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 21c | 2,083$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.32 | 1,012 | 36%364 W · 648 L | -20.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 10c | 1,680$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 18c | 1,214$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.05 | 762 | 41.9%319 W · 443 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 20c | 1,098$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.95 | 583 | 48.5%283 W · 300 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…7ac2backed Over | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 24c | 777$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 292 | 50%146 W · 146 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 23c | 568.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.64 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 75c | 531.41$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 31c | 421.94$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 406 | 55.2%224 W · 182 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 21c | 379.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 877 | 48.2%423 W · 454 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 11c | 313.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 4,874 | 41.5%2,021 W · 2,853 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 20c | 312.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 1,943 | 42.5%826 W · 1,117 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 77c | 299$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…8289backed Over | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Over | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 28c | 125.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 752 | 44.8%337 W · 415 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 23c | 98.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 660 | 32.9%217 W · 443 L | -32.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 21c | 90.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1,786 | 34.9%623 W · 1,163 L | -34.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 29c | 79.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 233 | 56.7%132 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Under | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 78c | 61.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 418 | 50.7%212 W · 206 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,080 | 45.2%488 W · 592 L | -19.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 74c | 58.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Over | 80c | 47.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…afc3backed Over | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 71cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…b2a6backed Over | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94ab…83f5backed Over | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 1,707 | 52.8%902 W · 805 L | +31.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d1…82b1backed Over | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…e44dbacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x650b…683fbacked Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf535…4103backed Over | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…bb12backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Sunderland AFC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Sunderland AFC won
- Spread: Sunderland AFC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Sunderland AFC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.