La Liga · resolved market
AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf148d513984f49c24c6f5eb3d95111d0279ff5bc03826ca18e054c376dd43fdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 696.88$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.01 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 42c | 566.79$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 526.37$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.45 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Under | 19c | 522.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48d7…1bd1backed Over | 45c | 340.45$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.43 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 318.61$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 225 | 53.8%121 W · 104 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 48c | 186.77$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.12 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Over | 46c | 125$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 46c | 123.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.91 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 216 | 26.9%58 W · 158 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 80c | 71.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3a…ae0dbacked Over | 46c | 61.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafdd…ae76backed Under | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Over | 46c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Over | 46c | 51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 49.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…279cbacked Under | 56c | 44.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x406b…ca34backed Under | 56c | 42.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 47c | 34.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Under | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6a…4f13backed Over | 46c | 25.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…fa4cbacked Under | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Under | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Under | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Under | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…afe6backed Under | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7c…1214backed Under | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Under | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Under | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 2.5this page
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 1.5Over won
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 3.5Over won
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.