La Liga · resolved market
AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ba825d0e8ba4064cb4b6a1d5c4ca4092d00d4200db2ab46d6c4318cbfbe89ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 3,545$2,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,459.28 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 32c | 3,187$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,170.69 | 228 | 59.6%136 W · 92 L | +18.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 60c | 986.29$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.05 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 25c | 605.19$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.89 | 216 | 26.9%58 W · 158 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 53c | 382.7$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.54 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked Over | 16c | 205$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +73%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 25c | 140$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 57c | 139.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.73 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Over | 25c | 119$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Over | 68c | 87.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Over | 24c | 86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 38c | 70.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 53c | 66.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 225 | 53.8%121 W · 104 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 61.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 170 | 36.5%62 W · 108 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 55c | 44.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under | 76c | 32.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Under | 75c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Under | 76c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…afe6backed Under | 76c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…48d8backed Under | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 64cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Under | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Under | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…c727backed Over | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Under | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Under | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed Under | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 3.5this page
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 1.5Over won
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 2.5Over won
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.