La Liga · resolved market
AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafc6581a84f2f9d90b5a7bb7d31b1783103453c8e1e3e0ec058f1b96da67276a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 21c | 867.89$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.64 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 496.05$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.93 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 73c | 396.89$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.16 | 130 | 70.8%92 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 57c | 220$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 223 | 57%127 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 68c | 173.73$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 16c | 117.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 14c | 116.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 28c | 111$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 14c | 101.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 174 | 55.2%96 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 28c | 86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…05c8backed Under | 17c | 82.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 73c | 76.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Under | 29c | 62.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Over | 62c | 62.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 283 | 42.8%121 W · 162 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 29c | 57.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 216 | 26.9%58 W · 158 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…c06dbacked Over | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 65c | 30.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Over | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Over | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Over | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…17e3backed Over | 73c | 22.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Over | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6827…26fdbacked Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Over | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Over | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Over | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Over | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 1.5this page
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 2.5Over won
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 3.5Over won
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.