TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Europa Conference League · resolved market

Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,345

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,051 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6be9…5998backed Under12c4,142$497 inLost-$4972927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid+305.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under25c4,107$1,027 inLost-$1,026.6438453.1%204 W · 180 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over51c409.43$209 inWon+$200.6227545.8%126 W · 149 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Under49c281.43$138 inLost-$137.918252.7%96 W · 86 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb460…6e64backed Over56c264.96$148 inWon+$116.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f7…7656backed Over57c263$149 inWon+$113.934669.6%32 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under44c242.45$107 inLost-$107.451,03950%520 W · 519 L+26.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under43c235$101 inLost-$101.051,03346.1%476 W · 557 L-3.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x851b…961ebacked Under45c132.09$59 inLost-$59.443420.6%7 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-40.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Under49c128$63 inLost-$62.722045%9 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under27c73.25$20 inLost-$19.852,33341.7%972 W · 1,361 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90b3…8b6dbacked Over55c72.73$40 inWon+$32.732653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under42c43.06$18 inLost-$17.9681440.5%330 W · 484 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under46c34.2$16 inLost-$15.7327554.9%151 W · 124 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under46c23$11 inLost-$10.583,72647%1,750 W · 1,976 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e48…c701backed Over80c13.88$11 inWon+$2.78966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.