Europa Conference League · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e576873ff9545ac1ce8a0d199d89702e70869d949f3e7342c117982aacd8e36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 16c | 17,922$2,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,917.45 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Under | 12c | 5,897$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…3e18backed Under | 15c | 5,757$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa69…02c1backed Under | 5c | 4,495$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.07 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 16c | 4,487$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.67 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 19c | 2,489$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.57 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 15c | 1,931$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.1 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Under | 13c | 1,393$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.08 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 56c | 1,100$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.32 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961c…9d72backed Under | 15c | 988.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 15c | 740.19$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.03 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 43c | 737.09$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.95 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Under | 13c | 553.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +305.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 74c | 458.6$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.24 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Over | 55c | 374.53$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.54 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 45c | 346.39$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.83 | 275 | 45.8%126 W · 149 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 16c | 225.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 19c | 218.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 19c | 209.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 80c | 207.21$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 19c | 202.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 15c | 199.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 72c | 196.57$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cf…2224backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Under | 44c | 170$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 28c | 167.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 44c | 164.37$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Over | 72c | 153.91$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf97…9fb8backed Under | 11c | 141.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 57c | 139.74$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 57c | 138.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 74c | 124.87$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Under | 43c | 96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5b…54f5backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…b821backed Under | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 18c | 67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 20c | 65.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Under | 18c | 61.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 62c | 53.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3a…e974backed Under | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b3…8b6dbacked Over | 57c | 50.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…7c68backed Under | 26c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a6…c03bbacked Over | 69c | 37.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…0812backed Under | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb975…a315backed Over | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 46c | 31.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e82…7ab7backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 53c | 24.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Over | 53c | 24.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 73c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Over | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 73c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Heart of Midlothian FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 0.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.