Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Shu Matsuoka vs Naoya Honda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf173c2afd51466d157942b57d50e27ae0a2138605c5c579c10142235af3c3203
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Naoya Hondaof Shu Matsuoka, Naoya Honda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Naoya Honda | 57c | 2,609$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.72 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc92…649dbacked Shu Matsuoka | 38c | 2,502$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.98 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Shu Matsuoka | 47c | 1,960$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.04 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Naoya Honda | 35c | 1,055$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.32 | 4,523 | 51.7%2,340 W · 2,183 L | +135.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Naoya Honda | 19c | 957.46$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.55 | 6,798 | 36.9%2,507 W · 4,291 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Shu Matsuoka | 39c | 846$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.7 | 197 | 40.6%80 W · 117 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Naoya Honda | 37c | 575$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.8 | 5,600 | 48.5%2,717 W · 2,883 L | +10.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Naoya Honda | 53c | 240.09$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.01 | 8,921 | 42.6%3,799 W · 5,122 L | -169.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Naoya Honda | 73c | 153.48$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 6,725 | 46.2%3,108 W · 3,617 L | -42.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8711…d2d0backed Shu Matsuoka | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 433 | 58.4%253 W · 180 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Naoya Honda | 65c | 92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 4,708 | 48.3%2,275 W · 2,433 L | +36.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Naoya Honda | 41c | 80.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Naoya Honda | 41c | 67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 181 | 32.6%59 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103f…86dbbacked Naoya Honda | 67c | 51.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 163 | 62%101 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf08…12a3backed Naoya Honda | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.