College Football · resolved market
Spread: USC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf18a9e50d0a85d6738cf9cd25386bf8c4d477ca1543214bd37f2fd4ad92fe608
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- USCof USC, Michigan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Michigan | 46c | 3,006$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.56 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed USC | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Michigan | 46c | 1,894$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.78 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed USC | 54c | 1,448$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.3 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked USC | 52c | 349.99$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Michigan | 52c | 218$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.68 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked USC | 50c | 209.43$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Michigan | 48c | 204.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ef…f8c1backed Michigan | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked USC | 53c | 191.33$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.45 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed USC | 53c | 189.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed USC | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked USC | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Michigan | 47c | 134.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Michigan | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Michigan | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Michigan | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed USC | 48c | 95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked USC | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…a079backed USC | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked USC | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…8c92backed Michigan | 52c | 38.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked USC | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…c0edbacked USC | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: USC (-2.5)this page
- Michigan vs. USCUSC won
- O/U 57.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.