Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-08-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1ae42fa84deabb3751cba10d8612071ae03465ec2653afeafee5ac37f7c6c1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed No | 35c | 10,000$3,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,491.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 65c | 7,080$4,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,470.08 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 66c | 2,246$1,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.81 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…819fbacked Yes | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes | 69c | 1,336$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 24c | 942.21$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.25 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 30c | 434.78$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.82 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 74c | 248.08$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 32c | 220$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 69c | 217.83$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +18.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 31c | 165.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…6f1abacked Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…81f5backed Yes | 69c | 123.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf783…9037backed Yes | 70c | 108.57$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 35c | 96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1060…a32dbacked No | 34c | 78.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 188 | 47.9%90 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…98f1backed Yes | 68c | 48.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd6…e908backed Yes | 69c | 40.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d8…b9e5backed Yes | 69c | 39.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bca…5741backed No | 32c | 36.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…4563backed No | 32c | 36.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea1…6d96backed Yes | 69c | 35.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb955…175ebacked Yes | 69c | 35.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Yes | 71c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf044…27cabacked Yes | 68c | 23.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 69c | 17.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…d170backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-08-23?this page
- Will FC Metz win on 2025-08-23?No won
- Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Metz end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.