Premier League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds United: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1bf5cb1b4f4e514ca67d631410776ad80f4a1ef281a8a1bd51eaf09ea5daf4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 2,637$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.68 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 43c | 1,067$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.12 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 56c | 899.98$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.99 | 301 | 49.5%149 W · 152 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Under | 60c | 832.62$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 56c | 811.19$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.15 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 43c | 806$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.43 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 72c | 450$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ee…ae8cbacked Over | 47c | 414.89$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 41c | 365.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.85 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 284.98$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.89 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 56c | 283.75$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.61 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…bbeebacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…04bcbacked Over | 44c | 204.66$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.61 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 44c | 201.14$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b8…3539backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Over | 41c | 158.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.54 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 43c | 149.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed Over | 41c | 119.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 52c | 115.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 136 | 56.6%77 W · 59 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…8e83backed Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8279…7edcbacked Over | 37c | 81.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634b…363bbacked Over | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7d…5b5abacked Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 63c | 40.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 255 | 45.5%116 W · 139 L | -18.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Over | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Under | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…1bf3backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Under | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 74c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfb…b890backed Over | 48c | 21.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds United: O/U 2.5this page
- Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds United: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest (-0.5)Nottingham Forest won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.