Serie A · resolved market
Will US Cremonese win on 2025-10-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1c0bec3c37107e041f859e70530b505d321880f79128ef5bb57968d26dc03bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 14c | 19,349$2,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,719.2 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 13c | 6,108$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.76 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 14c | 2,887$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.17 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 14c | 2,309$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.27 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 15c | 1,572$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.39 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 16c | 1,084$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.43 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 14c | 749.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 13c | 742.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 14c | 645$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Yes | 16c | 562.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 15c | 499.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8accbacked Yes | 14c | 457.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 16c | 296.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 17c | 281$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 17c | 185$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…8f66backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 16c | 135.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e2…1026backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…c664backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…6525backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…9b7dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4803…b382backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 62c | 31.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US Cremonese win on 2025-10-25?this page
- Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-25?No won
- Will US Cremonese vs. Atalanta end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.