Serie A · resolved market
Will US Cremonese vs. Atalanta end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1fe03bc334f45fed8a1758805fa14c36832178f51e583a9aef6e37aebab6c53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 21c | 14,075$2,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,119.12 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 12,480$9,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,832.42 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 22c | 8,000$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,280 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 48c | 3,346$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.35 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2633…1930backed Yes | 52c | 3,059$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 78c | 2,977$2,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,322.08 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8accbacked Yes | 22c | 2,048$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597.76 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 77c | 1,470$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.24 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 77c | 1,351$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.14 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 79c | 1,277$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.96 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 79c | 791$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.89 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.19 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 25c | 468$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.34 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 22c | 453$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.34 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 26c | 340.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 24c | 337.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.5 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…c5c8backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b4…08d7backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde43…ec94backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa633…497dbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ae…b7b7backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x618a…6196backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ea…f860backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 74c | 192.14$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 72c | 138.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 153 | 57.5%88 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 23c | 113$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 70c | 90.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 71.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 56c | 71.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 60c | 65.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…024ebacked Yes | 66c | 27.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…629ebacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US Cremonese vs. Atalanta end in a draw?this page
- Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-25?No won
- Will US Cremonese win on 2025-10-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.